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Numbers · 4 min read
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
The 4% rule, why it's American, and why Indian FIRE plans often use 3–3.5%.
3–3.5%
a sensible starting rate for Indian FIRE plans
The 4% rule
US research in the 1990s (the 'Trinity study' and Bengen's work) found that withdrawing 4% of a stock/bond portfolio in year one, then raising it with inflation, historically lasted at least 30 years in most periods.
That's where '25× your expenses' comes from.
Why India is different
So many Indian FIRE planners use 3–3.5%. It means a bigger number, but a sturdier plan.
- ●Higher inflation (5–7% vs 2–3%) means withdrawals grow faster.
- ●Early retirees need money for 40–50 years, not 30.
- ●Shorter, more volatile market history to test against.
It's a guide, not a law
Real retirees adapt: spend a little less after a crash, a little more after a boom. Flexibility is worth a lot. Our stress test shows how much.
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Estimates, not guarantees. Projections assume steady average returns and inflation; real markets are bumpy, and returns are not guaranteed. This is an educational tool, not investment, tax or financial advice. See our methodology, assumptions & limitations · Last updated 25 October 2026.